News and Comments Tuesday 5 February 2013

WHAT IS TRUE? "Okay, I ask you if any of this is true. How can you know? I haven't given you enough information even to ask better, more sensible, more meaningful questions. The better question is, 'Having heard what I told you ... is it likely to be true?' Let me suggest these categories: true, untrue, likely to be true, unlikely to be true, and, there isn't enough known to answer likely or unlikely." --Elliot Perlman, The Street Sweeper.

NO SURPRISES ON MILITARY.  PM Bainimarama has  reconfirmed that the RFMF will be represented in the Constituent Assembly  and hinted that the military's submission, ignored by the Constitution Commission, has been considered in the new draft constitution. This should  not, however, be taken to mean that the military has political aspirations.  Land Force Commander Colonel Mosese Tikoitoga  says the military as an institution will not support any political party "even if  Prime Minister and Army Commander Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama decides to form a party."  But soldiers can "vote for any parties they would want to vote for ...and if military people want to contest elections they will do so like any other political party."

"THE MEDDLESOME PRIEST."  NZ Truth editor Cameron "Whaleoil" Slater got a number of things wrong in the recent Fiji Sun article on Michael Field and Fr Barr. I agree totally with his criticism of journalist Michael Field's selective biases, the uncritical "baton-passing" of Field's writings on Fiji by other overseas journalists, and the role of the blog Coup4.5 in disseminating biased and incorrect information about Fiji.    I'd also go along with his reliance on Graham Davis as a reasoned commentator on Fiji but I'd also say that Graham is unashamedly pro-Bainimarama and, like Slater himself, politically right wing which could have influenced their judgement on the left-leaning Fr Barr.

But I  cannot agree with their argument that Fr Barr's work permit was  revoked because of his repeated breaches of his work permit. Slater writes: "Father Barr is an Australian in Fiji on a religious permit which allows him to work for the church and in certain other activities. It does not, however, allow him to engage in politics, something he appears to have forgotten recently with political statements concerning the minimum wage and certain decrees such as the Essential Industries Decree."

It all depends on what you mean by politics, of course, but where has Cameron been for the past 32 years while Fr Barr was writing and working on political issues such  as social justice, fair wages, affordable housing, and empowerment of the poor?  Not to mention his participation in and support for the People's Charter and as the government-appointed chairperson of the Wages Council? Were these not political?  If Fr Barr  has been troublesome and meddlesome, as Cameron  says. then it must have escaped the attention of successive governments for the past 32 years.  Until now. 

Cameron also seems to suggest Fr Barr has no right to speak because he has not taken up Fiji citizenship, but he failed to note that until recently dual citizenship was not possible.  (By the same logic, Fiji-born Cameron, now a NZ citizen, has surely disqualified himself from speaking on Fiji.)

As for his assertion that non-citizens, and especially churchmen, would not be allowed to take part in politics in New Zealand, this is nonsense. My Mother voted in every election for over fifty years and never took up citizenship or applied for permanent residence. And NZ church leaders have been constantly engaged in the very same social issues that have been deemed political in Fr Barr's case. Think Rev Charles Waldegrave QSO, or Archbishop Sir Paul Reeves. 

The whole affair should be put behind us. I am disappointed the Fiji Sun published the article. It only added to the misinformation.  Fr Barr has apologized and the PM seems to have accepted the apology.  We should move on.

CHRISTIAN STATE: NOT AGAIN. On Sunday the new president of the Methodist Church, Rev. Tuikilaila Waqairatu, delivered a sermon  reiterating his support for Fiji to become a Christian state. The call comes as a surprise given that only a week earlier the church said it sought to improve relations with government and government's "non-negotiable" position  that Fiji will be a secular state will be no special preference for any religion.  Equally  surprising is that he chose to deliver the sermon, not to iTaukei whose tradition calls for the unity of vanua. lotu and matanitu (hence the many submissions to the Constitution Commission by villagers calling for a Christian state) but to the Indian Methodist Circuit at the Dudley Church in Toorak.  Unsurprisingly, some church members raised concerns on how Rev Waqairatu had used the pulpit to push through his political views on a Christian State. Early on Monday Rev Waqairatu told Fiji Village he would be making a public statement to explain his position but by the afternoon he had changed his mind and refused to comment.   

SPEIGHT COUP PLOTTER FEARS FOR HIS LIFE. Maciu Navakasuasua, who was involved in the planning and execution of the the 2000 Speight Coup, and who subsequently imprisoned  for three years. has been told he cannot live in Australia and has to return home. The Australian government has denied an application for a protection visa for the whistleblower. Navakasuasua, who works in a mining company as an explosive expert under the name Maciu Naqari, said he feared for his life if he returned home. Navakasuasua expressed disappointment over the decision, saying he was a genuine applicant whose life had been threatened by the 2000 coup supporters in Fiji."The whole of Fiji knows I was involved in the May 19, 2000, coup, and that I was incarcerated on Nukulau for my involvement. Unlike those who are coming to Australia from Fiji and applying for protection, they don't have a life-threatening situation back home compared to what I've gone through and experienced," he said."Failed politicians and businessmen have a gang ready to slit my throat if I ever return home. I can't go home for my life is in danger and my safety is not guaranteed."

Minister for Immigration Joketani Cokanasiga said: "If he is genuine, the government will see how he can be protected."

MASI MOTIFS. A petition is circulating to prevent Air Pacific trademarking/copyrighting 15 traditional masi (tapa) designs. The Fiji Women's Rights Movement is one of the organizations opposed to the Air Pacific action.

EMMANUEL METHODISTS.  A small "branch" of the Methodist Church wants the Bainimarama Government to continue in power after the 2014 election.

REPUTABLE AND DISREPUTABLE JOURNALISM.  Anyone with any knowledge of journalism education in the Pacific knows Prof David Robie's impeccable reputation earned over  many years in PNG, New Caledonia and Fjii. Anyone with any knowledge of the the recent dismissal of Canadian Dr Marc Edge from the USP journalism programme and his hasty departure from Fiji will know something of the chaos he created in his short tenure.  He is still at it, promoting himself on his personal blog and on the anti-government blogs.  Almost all his writings start and finish with "I" with something about democracy sandwiched in between.  I've blocked his personal and vindictive comments on this blog and have otherwise have tried to stay out of the picture.

But I think this article by David Robie  on vendetta journalism and Marc Edge's reply worth publishing, despite Edge's obvious errors of fact. Further exchanges may be found on these links: Edge  
and for Robie Cafe Pacific  and Cafe Pacific.

Robie is also  the author of the bookMekim Nius: South Pacific media, politics and education (USP Book Centre, 2004) which gives a history of journalism education in the Pacific, especially Fiji, and the impact of politics and political intrigue.    He was the head of journalism at the University of Papua New Guinea and the the University of the South Pacific (Fiji) for a decade.

This item is for your information only and does not invite further comment.

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News and Comments Monday 4 February 2013

"A rose by any other name..."?

THE "NEW" SDL, RO TEIMUMU  AND MICK BEDDOES.  The acronym stays the same but the old SDL is now the Social Democratic Liberal Party and its patron is still Ro Teimumu Kepa whose Constitution Commission submission wanted the 1997 Constitution, Senate and the Great Council of Chiefs reinstated,  Fiji to reaffirm itself as Christian, no immunity for Bainimarama, and further protection for the "indigenous way of life."  Mick Beddoes, having dissolved the UPP, is now applying for membership. He thinks his experience in politics will help the SDL should they choose him as a candidate in the 2014 election.

CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY.  With Government's release of its changes to the Ghai draft constitution already  late, people are asking whether invitations  to participate in the Assembly will also be late, and, more importantly, whether the deadline for the acceptance of the constitution will provide sufficient time for full and proper discussion.

The draft is reported to be in its final stages and is expected to be presented the Constituent Assembly when it meets.  The PM told the Fiji Sun, “The Constituent Assembly is to have its first sitting in February 2013. We expect, as announced last year, that a new Constitution should be in place by March of this year.”  But when in February, the 14th as earlier stated, and when in March? And who will be invited to be members of the Assembly?

WORLD INVITED TO PARTICIPATE IN 2014 ELECTIONS. Government has invited the global community to participate in preparations for the 2014 general election.  A letter has been sent to the heads of all diplomatic missions in Fiji by the Attorney General, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, laying out a timetable for election preparations and inviting them to take part. The letter has also been sent to a range of multilateral agencies such as the United Nations Development Program, the Asian Development Bank, the International Labour Organisation and the Pacific Forum.

Government has allocated $11.4 million dollars in the 2013 Budget for election preparations, including voter registration within Fiji and abroad, the recruitment of key personnel and the purchase of election materials such as ballot boxes.

Areas in which the global community can immediately participate include:  planning the administration and logistics for the election, assessing the technical requirements of holding the poll and funding such things as the printing of ballot papers and voter lists.  In the second quarter (April-June)  Fiji invites participation to draft the rules and regulations for the election and also begin a programme of civil education and awareness to educate Fijians on the new electoral system. In the third quarter (July-September) the supply of election materials will commence. Expressions of Interest have been advertised for qualified companies to supply a range of items and advertisements are also being commissioned by Fiji’s diplomatic missions abroad.

Attorney-General Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum said, "These preparations are for the first parliamentary elections ever conducted on the basis of one person, one vote, one value. We have a lot of ground to cover and we need the best possible preparations now to ensure a transparent process and state of preparedness. We need proper systems to guard against fraud and protect the integrity of the new parliament.”

EU WEIGHING OPTIONS. While France has supported Fiji's dialogue process, a Cook Island opposition MP says sanctions should be increased, and Charge d'affaires for the EU delegation in the Pacific, Johnny Engell-Hansen, has told Radio Australia the EU is weighing its options regarding financial support to Fiji for election-related purposes.

"I'm not sure that I'd say we've lost faith, but we are a little bit confused by what's actually going on right now," he said. "We see various developments and we hear various statements, and what we would really like to be reassured of is that the process is on track, and that there is an irreversible process that will lead to those free and fair elections by 2014."

Fr BARR: THE PM RECONSIDERS. "Following representations made to me, I have reviewed and reversed the decision made by the Minister of Immigration to cancel the work permit for Kevin Barr. Father Barr is free to remain in the country until his work permit has expired which at that time will still be subject to assessment for renewal following the necessary protocols." -- JV Bainimarama, Prime Minister.

MICHAEL FIELD GETS IT WRONG AGAIN.  Does he do this on purpose or is he just a sloppy journalist? He reported that Fr Barr sought refuge in the Australian High Commission and, that when he rung him, Fr Barr said he could not talk just now, inferring some sort of duress.

Fr Barr, however, has informed me that  he had merely gone to the HighCom to inform them about what was happening,  and he "could not talk" just then because he had just got home and Field had caught him unprepared.

HUMAN TRAFFICKERS JAILED.  High Court judge Justice Paul Madigan. sentenced four foreigners to between five and ten years imprisonment for human trafficking. The four facilitated the travel of three Thai women into Fiji in early September last year on the pretext that they were to work as masseurs but after arrival they were forced into prostitution.

Justice Madigan said: “If a robust prison sentence is needed in order to send a clear warning message to would be offenders then so be it.” He said invading an overseas country with drugs and criminal activity was a breach of international protocol and relationships.

Meanwhile, the Director of Public Prosecutions Christopher Pryde said that the sentence given sent a strong message to would-be offenders.“This is Fiji’s second successful prosecution of a human trafficking ring since the Fijian Government brought in the Crimes Decree in 2009 which created specific offences of human trafficking,” he said. “The sentence handed down today sends a very strong message to people who would engage in this type of offending.”

ALLEN LOCKINGTON WRITES. Latin and French were two languages taught in schools back in the old days. I don’t know how it benefited those who studied it, but just imagine if Hindi and the iTaukei languages had been taught back then. I’m pretty sure we would have benefited so much culturally and we would have better understanding of each others ways of life.

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CCF Wants Budget Transparency

Media Release, Citizens’ Constitutional Forum Limited, 1st February 2013

Open Budget Survey a Wakeup Call for Government 

The CCF maintains its call for government to practice Transparency and Accountability on the back of a poor 2012 Open Budget Survey rating released yesterday.

Authorities on Good Governance ESCAP define Transparency as decisions taken and their enforcement being done in a manner that follows rules and regulations. It also means that information is freely available and directly accessible to those who will be affected by such decisions. This definition includes openness of the decision-making and enforcement processes as well as access to and distribution of information.

The Citizens’ Constitutional Forum reiterates its calls on the Bainimarama government to initiate urgent steps to make public the Auditor General’s reports and reports from the Public Accounts Committee available to the people of Fiji.

The recently released assessment by the Independent Open Budget Survey 2012 (OBS) shows that Fiji scored 6 out of 100. Our index rating, lower even than China’s 11, defines Fiji as providing “scant or no information” to the public in the budget documents.

CCF CEO Rev. Akuila Yabaki says taxpayers remain in the dark on how their money has been spent by the Bainimarama government since 2006. This in itself goes against Pillars 3, 4 and 5 of the Peoples Charter which demands greater transparency and accountability from the government in dealing with public funds.

CCF urges the Bainimarama government to take on board the findings and recommendations of the OBS and allow public access to its financial documents and audits which are currently only for internal use within government bodies.

In the absence of Parliament there’s even greater onus on the part of Government to make this information available as it is a fundamental principle of Good Governance.

For further information, please contact the communications team at CCF on communications@ccf.org.fj

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Lockington's Everyday Fiji ... Life Goes On

                                 Slipping Away

 There was so much hype with this being the best 7s team and that they were well prepared. Just after all the praise and the reality that Gordon Tietjens and the Australians bought their teams to learn from us.

Anyway, what could have gone wrong with the boys, are they not listening to the coach? We see that they don’t seem to have a game plan and played individually. They didn’t seem to gel as a good team should. Where did all the goodness that was evident in the Uprising Sevens go? We have been falling lower and lower in performance on the international scene, now we will play the bowl for the first time ever, somewhere we should never be seen. I’m glad that there is nothing like the wooden spoon to contest, because we could even fall that way, because its not impossible.

But the boys have done what they possibly could do and like Africa we are slipping away. But I congratulate the other teams that have grown from strength to strength and now sit where we once sat.

And to all the coaches and team management, please don’t shoot your mouths off before we play and make no predictions because times have changed and rugby is now played scientifically and not with just brawn.

Oh how I long for the days when the Nabua team made up the bulk of the Fiji team, they played with class and flair and were a joy to watch.

Allen Lockington is a self-employed customs agent and business consultant who has regular articles published in Fiji. I thank Allen for permission to reprint some of them in this political blog. They remind us that life goes on, whatever the political situation. And it's good to know that.

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Politics, the Reforms and the Economy

Pacific Scoop: Analysis – By Professor Biman Prasad in Suva

Fiji government budgets since 1987 have been prepared in the shadows of political instability and suspicion, coups, and uncertainty of the future. Even General Elections held under the 1997 Constitution, which was based on power-sharing, failed to fully allay the concerns. The People’s Coalition’s 2000 budget was implemented against the backdrop of rumours about another coup and continued protests by the ethno-nationalists.

There is no doubt that the last seven budgets since 2006, including the revised 2007 budget, have been prepared against an environment of dominated by fear, mistrust and uncertainty of the future.
In delivering the 2008 budget, the then Interim Finance Minister, Mahendra Pal Chaudhry, blamed the SDL government of mismanaging the economy and claimed that the country was on the verge of bankruptcy.

This may have been an exaggeration, even though the situation wasn’t rosy. Since the 2000 coup political instability continued to be an issue.N Even after the 2001 General Election, investment levels did not increase.

Economic growth
Between 2006 and 2010 the Fiji economy grew by a mere 0.1 percent. In 2011, the growth rate improved to 1.9 percent. The projection for 2012 has already been revised two times: first, it was revised upward to 2.7% and then revised downward to 2.5 percent.

The initial forecast to 2.7 percent was misplaced as it was done soon after the devastating floods in the early part of 2012. The forecasts for 2013 and 2014 make sense but the big unknown is how the political climate will change in 2013 and 2014.

The current constitutional consultations and the preparation of the new Constitution, if followed through, would be positive, especially if plans for 2014 elections are fully transparent and on-track.
This will boost confidence and we may be able to achieve growth rates of more than 2 percent in 2013 and 2014. What is clear from GDP figures in the last 6 years is that almost all productive sector contributions to GDP have declined.

The 2012 budget has had some radical measures and this involved reductions in corporate tax and income tax. In many ways it was a bold budget.

It tried to radically change the fiscal policy environment by providing incentives for consumers to spend more and investors to invest more. In my previous comments on the 2012 budget I had stated that while it is a bold budget, its effectiveness will depend on the level of confidence that will be generated in the economy through steps taken towards democratic elections.

The formation of the Constitutional Commission did help but the skirmishes with the commission and the government because of decrees restricting transparency of the work of the commission may have discredited the process somewhat.

The uncertainty in 2012 as a result of the differing views of the commission and the government may have dampened the spirit of consumers and investors.

It is therefore not surprising that growth rate for 2012 has been revised downwards to 2.5 percent; however, given the poor performance of the productive sectors such as agriculture, sugar and forestry we could end up with a growth rate for 2012 at less than 2 percent.

Key focus
One of the key thrusts of the 2013 budget is the continuation of incentives for investment. However, it must be noted that despite the significant incentives, the overall level of investment remains below 20 percent of GDP. More disconcerting is the persistent low levels of private sector investment.

From as high as 14 percent of GDP in the early 1980s, it has now declined to only 4 percent. The media hype about investment approvals and to some extent selected government propaganda about investment does not reveal the true state of investment levels in Fiji.

The registration and approval of investment proposals does not necessarily imply its implementation. Figures show that over the past few years registered investments have not translated into actual investments.

The reason for poor private sector investment remains mired into poor institutional process. Too much control and inconsistency of policies and incentives have created uncertainty.

While the work of the Commerce Commission is important for addressing prices issues for the vulnerable and poor, it is not necessarily the best way to deal with the impact on poor.

The lack of transparency and the unpredictability of the price control system have created more uncertainty and confusion and have probably increased the cost of doing business in Fiji.
In fact, in 2011, the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Survey shows that Fiji’s ranking has gone down and is lower than Samoa and Tonga. Government needs to further concentrate on improving the business environment by applying rules and policies in a transparent and predictable manner.
The 2013 budget is again bold and has built on the direction set by the 2012 budget. I am particularly encouraged by the emphasis of the budget on capital expenditure and a focus on roads.

The deterioration in the infrastructure in the last 25 years has been phenomenal and it has become one of the binding constraints for investment in Fiji apart from the sustained political uncertainty. The infrastructure deficit has to be addressed and the increase in the deficit to 2.8 percent in the  2013 budget to address infrastructure bottlenecks is not necessarily worrisome immediately.

If the spending on roads and other infrastructure is managed well and improved in the next two years, then we would be setting up a very good foundation for growth beyond 2014, especially if promised elections are held.

However, the total debt level has to be scrutinised carefully so that it does not become unsustainable. The present debt level will have to be gradually brought down in the next few years so that there is enough fiscal space to counter any global risks emanating from the global economic slowdown.

There are other positive aspects of the budget where expenditure on health, education, social welfare, pension for those over 70 years is going to have a positive impact on improving the quality of life of people.

The health sector particularly needs urgent attention and we hope that the increase in the budget is used to improve the conditions of the hospitals around Fiji and the services it provides. The condition at the CWM Hospital for example is depressing. It has filthy toilets and dirty floors, and services at the hospitals are getting worse by the day.

A 70-year-old woman who suffered a stroke was left in the corridors of the CWM hospital in Suva without any care for almost a day. Expenditure allocation therefore alone does not mean that services to the poor are going to improve.

It depends on how the respective ministers, their permanent secretaries and senior civil servants are able to implement and spend funds wisely to improve the services.

In my view the biggest hurdle for the government to achieve better delivery of public services is hampered by ineffective ministers and senior civil servants.

Addressing unemployment and poverty
 The biggest cause for concern is the low level of employment generation in Fiji over the last several years. Close to 40 percent of those employed are in the informal sector, where wages are very low.

While the 2013 budget has increased the tax threshold, it is not going to address the concerns of those employed in the informal sector and in some of the lower paid private sectors. The failure of the wages council to address the appropriate wage rise for those workers in those sectors will continue to keep many families in the poverty trap.

The immediate prospect for employment looks bleak. The National Employment Centre (NEC) data shows that since 2010 a total number of 25,801 unemployed persons have registered but only a small number of close to 1,400 have been able to secure full time employment.

One area where government has concentrated recently is to ensure that our unemployed and especially those with skills would be able to find employment in other countries and this is commendable. The recent Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) agreement on labour mobility relating to skilled workers may provide some cushion.

Remittances contribute close to about F$300 million to the Fijian economy and this is only second to tourism. Fiji has lost out on seasonal workers scheme in New Zealand as a result of the 2006 coup. One hopes that after the General Election, Fijian unskilled workers would be able to get employment in New Zealand.

To make matters worse for these unemployed and low income categories of families, inflation has been hitting them hard. Between 2006 and 2010 the average inflation rate has been around 5 percent.
In 2008, 2009 and 2010, mainly due to high fuel and food prices and devaluation of the Fiji dollar in 2009, inflation rate was close to 8 percent.

In 2010 and 2011, the inflation rate remained high while it is predicted to be lower in 2012. Government may not be able to keep inflation down through price control as the causes of inflation are either imported or driven by domestic supply and demand conditions and import duties.

For example, the increase in duties on milk products appears to be inconsistent with the overall thrust of the government export-oriented strategy for growth. The high import duty imposed on imports could lead to significant costs to consumers of milk products as more than 80 percent of milk products are imported.

While, it is laudable that government is supporting dairy development in Fiji, it should not do so through high import duties. This is only going to help increase private profits at the expense of the consumers.
The tax free incentive for dairy investment and direct support to farmers should be the approach adopted to develop the industry instead of high import duties on milk products.

It is worrisome that imported milk products for infants will become very expansive and unaffordable to the poor families. Government should re-look at the high import duties on milk products.

Support to productive sectors
The support to the rural agricultural sector makes sense as poverty levels are now higher in the rural areas. The allocations for export promotion in the agriculture sector, new crop extension programme, livestock extension programme, allocations for research programme and drainage programme are welcomed and should be increased in future budgets.

The allocation to the sugar of $13 million is welcome but it is not clear how much of that will go directly to the farmers apart from the $0.5 million for cane replanting programme. The sugar industry will need additional injection and direct support to farmers to bring back the confidence in the industry and keep productive and experienced farmers on the land.

Future prospects
As indicated earlier, the economic growth rates have been less than 1 percent in the last five years. While the projections for 2012-2014 show a growth rate of more than 2 percent, they would not be achieved if the enabling environment for investment through building political certainty and credibility are not improved.

We know that despite the significant financial incentives, private sector investment has remained very poor.  This has resulted in high levels of unemployment in the economy. The 2013 budget has some very positive elements like the focus on improving physical infrastructure and supporting productive sectors to improve production and exports.

However, there remain several challenges like reducing the cost of doing business in Fiji through institutional transparency, accountability and good governance.

The government should seriously consider removing some of the decrees and limiting the development of new decrees as these do not promote confidence in the economy. Government should continue with other important structural reforms.

These reforms should continue to ensure that the civil service is productive and effective, introduce further competition in the telecommunications sector and continue to reform the sugar industry.
Confidence in the country will continue to grow if the constitutional process is seen to its logical conclusion through an inclusive and transparent process. This will improve the prospects for further private sector investment and the 2013 budget will lay the foundation for better growth in 2013 and beyond.

Dr Biman Prasad is Professor of Economics at the University of the South Pacific and the views expressed here are not those of his employer.

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Australia and Fiji by Richard Herr

Why Carr needs the velvet glove more than the iron fist

31 Jan 2013

By Richard Herr

On my flight home from Fiji recently, I was struck by the continuing negativism of the arguments regarding Australian relations with Fiji. Rowan Callick’s commentary in the Weekend Australian is another example of a tough line on Fiji without any positive proposals. The one element of novelty in Callick’s piece, however, is the suggestion that Carr’s ‘soft’ approach toward the Government of Commodore Voreqe (‘Frank’) Bainimarama is the reason why Fiji has slipped the leash and gone feral recently. But this belies the evidence of the past six years. When has the Bainimarama Government ever been on an Australian leash or even responded positively to pressure from Canberra?

Having viewed the changing events in Fiji fairly closely in a variety of roles over the past six years, I find it difficult to see how the tactics that have failed to have any influence on the course of Fiji’s return to democracy since the December 2006 military coup will work in the 18 months before Fiji is due to go to elections. And this view has been bolstered by a week in Suva talking with a range of people that included participants in the constitutional process, current and former members of Government and academics. More of the same intransigence simply will not to produce a different outcome.

The Bainimarama Government has neither deviated from the roadmap’s timing for the return to democracy that it announced in July 2009 and nor has it altered this timetable since Bob Carr became Foreign Minister. Still, it’s a welcome development that Carr apparently has accepted this—albeit at a fairly low level—but it’s far too late to have the sort of influence that was on offer at the beginning of 2008.


The deepening frustration with Canberra since July 2009 comes from seeing Australian Governments refusing to set incremental steps for returning to a balanced relationship; of being obdurate even to the point of reneging on an agreement. Fiji’s lifting of censorship rules, withdrawal of the public emergency regulations, registering of voters and starting of the constitutional process have all been greeted with ‘not enough’ from Canberra.

The Bainimarama Government nevertheless expected some improvement in relations after the July 2012 tripartite agreement between Australia, Fiji and New Zealand to restore High Commissioners and relax some visa sanctions. However, to its genuine disappointment, many in Government in Suva saw little real change. They smile wryly at Australian critics who interpreted Carr’s expression of understanding over some of the complexities of the drafting of a new constitution as example of unwarranted appeasement.
Understanding scarcely constitutes undeserved compassion in a sanctions regime against Fiji which includes elements that, arguably, would be illegal if applied domestically—such as those against family members of targeted officials. Indeed, within the Fiji Government, the travel sanctions against it are claimed to be more extensive than even those against Mugabe at his worst. Yet, for all their severity, the critics can’t point to a single positive instance where these sanctions have hastened the return to democracy in Fiji by so much as a day.

Seen from the Suva perspective, there hasn’t been a skerrick of public encouragement to mark the passing of the roadmap’s milestones to elections. The most recent disappointment was the denial of a visa to Aisake Taito, the chief executive of the Fiji National Provident Fund (a Government enterprise) and Bainimarama’s brother-in-law, who was to make a business trip to Australia at the end of December. Suva saw this as a clear breach of the July 2012 tripartite agreement. According to one commentator, it’s now highly likely that the Government’s response will be to refuse Margaret Twomey a chance to present her credentials as the first Australian High Commissioner to Fiji since James Batley was expelled in November 2009.

Whether anyone one in Canberra wants to admit it, Australia has suffered a retreat from influence within our region and its institutions; a decline of support from our neighbours in the United Nations; and diminished respect from key allies in the South Pacific on regional affairs. These foreign policy consequences for the contretemps between Australia and Fiji shouldn’t be used to excuse the weaknesses in the political processes of Fiji today but the critics, especially those so vocal in the Australian media, should be consistent in their expectations.

Even supporters of the Bainimarama Government have been disappointed that it hasn’t taken every opportunity to demonstrate the bona fides of its professed reformist goals. This includes, most recently, aspects of the constitutional process and the edict regulating political parties as well as a renewed activism by the Republic of Fiji Military Forces. Nevertheless, the present Government is the only game in town at least until 2014. Canberra needs to recognise this even as its South Pacific allies have already done. Moreover, Canberra needs to recognise and address the fact that Fiji has its own complaints against Australia.

It’s impossible to prove that a gentler, more engaged approach to the Bainimarama Government would have accelerated the return to democracy or made the path to democracy smoother. What’s undeniable is that the hard line approach advocated by critics over the years hasn’t prevented any of the adverse consequences of the toxic political relationship between the two countries. Indeed, it has contributed demonstrably to these outcomes. Failing to reset policy settings with regard to Fiji until ‘after free and fair elections in 2014’ merely demonstrates this ineffectiveness. Worse, where does Canberra go when elections are held under a constitution it regards as flawed by a process it deems biased? Does Australia rail against the result as not ‘free and fair’ and so maintain the sanctions that have had no effect?
It’s far too late to expect any great Australian influence on Suva’s charted course to the 2014 elections. But there’s much to be done to assist technically with the preparations for them, if Bainimarama will accept help now. If not, it’s still essential to prepare the ground for more effective relations after the elections. Hectoring from the bunkers is not only a demonstration of impotence; it is also preparing a grave for future relations.

Richard Herr is honorary director of the Centre for International and Regional Affairs, University of Fiji. Some of these themes will be explored more fully with regards to the broader implications for Australia’s security interests in Melanesia at RUSI’s forthcoming 2^nd International Defence and Security Dialogue. Image courtesy of Flickr user Asia Society.

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